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David Zervos, Jefferies
Scott Mlyn | CNBC
The chances that Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos will become the next Federal Reserve Chair are jumping on prediction market Kalshi as the Trump administration considers several candidates to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell once his term expires next year.
Users on Kalshi increased their bets that President Donald Trump will nominate Zervos to 15% Wednesday after sources told CNBC that Trump is looking at 11 candidates for Fed chair, including Zervos as well as others such as former Fed Governor Larry Lindsey and Rick Rieder – BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income.
Zervos’ probability of becoming Trump’s pick tied that of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh’s, who at one time was considered the front runner for the position. At one point early Wednesday, Zervos’ chances even topped Warsh’s at 17% to 15%, respectively.
Fed Governor Chris Waller still sits in the number one spot on the platform, with odds at 31%, while National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett’s odds are now at 20%.
Both Hassett and Warsh odds shot up on prediction markets after Trump talked up “the Kevins” on CNBC last week, saying they are both “very good.”
Both have advocated for lower interest rates. Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, has been a frequent target of Trump’s criticism for keeping rates elevated.
In the most recent Fed decision in July, Waller, along with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, publicly dissented with the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. Waller, who was nominated by Trump to the Fed in 2020, said the Fed’s wait-and-see approach is “overly cautious.”
Bloomberg News reported last week, citing people familiar with the matter, that Trump’s advisors like Waller’s openness to adjust monetary policy based on forecasting, rather than current data. It also reported that Waller has met with Trump’s team about the Fed chief role but hasn’t met with the president himself.
