More progress on inflation needed before more rate cuts

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that while monetary policy “is now in a good place,” she wants to see data reflect more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates further. 

“I would like to gain greater confidence that progress in lowering inflation will continue as we consider making further adjustments to the target range,” Bowman said in a speech at the American Bankers Association. 

Rising core goods price inflation since last spring has slowed progress, Bowman said. While she expects inflation to continue to decelerate this year, she said disinflation “may take longer than we would hope.” 

“I continue to see greater risks to price stability, especially while the labor market remains strong,”  Bowman said.

The most recent consumer price index showed inflation trended higher than expected in January, rising 0.5% month-over-month versus the Dow Jones estimate calling for a 0.3% rise. This put the annual inflation rate at 3%, coming in above consensus forecasts for 2.9%

The Fed maintained its target rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% at its January policy meeting.

Bowman said Monday the current level is appropriate for “allowing the Committee to be patient and pay closer attention to the inflation data as it evolves.”

“The current policy stance also provides the opportunity to review further indicators of economic activity and get further clarity on the administration’s policies and their effects on the economy,” continued Bowman.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs against the U.S.’s largest trading partners have raised concerns among economists of higher prices. Expectations for further interest rate cuts in 2025 have weakened on Trump’s trade war. Traders are currently pricing in just a single quarter-percentage-point rate reduction this year, according to CME Group Data.